Intensive gamblers on German-style slot-machines

Results of German-style slot-machine gambling are reported, stemming from seven individual surveys in representatively sampled households (N=7,643). The aim of the inquiry was the reexamination of studies of the number of gamblers in the population together with gambling hours spent per week by active gamblers. The results are largely identical with already known data. Of persons of voting age or older, 10.2% are active gamblers (4.6 million; having gambled at least once within the last 3 months). Of the active gamblers 0.7% are intensive gamblers (5 hours and more per week). These persons number approximately 32,000 in the Federal Republic of Germany, or from 12,000 to 71,000 (95% confidence interval). In addition to the frequency distributions, interactions with socio-demographic characteristics were examined, and an estimate was made for the prevalence of intensive gamblers with severe stress.This article was first published in Germany: Bühringer, G. & Konstanty, R., (1989) Vielsspieler an Geldautomaten in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland, Suchtgefahren 35, 1–13.     

Comparing a new technology with its predecessor—Steel making

This paper examines the physical and economic performance of a major innovation in steel making, the Basic Oxygen Furnace, and compares it with the performance of the traditional, open-hearth process. Evaluations are based on actual records from five American plants, covering three different time periods, and are set against engineering and management expectations as to the innovation's effects. Interviews with managers and technical personnel complemented the statistical findings. The analysis considers: how the attractiveness of the innovation was determined ex ante; the relative accuracy of the expected technological and economic expectations; the interactions of the innovation with the surrounding production system; and the objectives of post-installation technical and managerial adaptations.     

Secular state,religious lives: Islam and the state in Malaysia

Debates on secularism in Malaysia often revolve around the legal, especially the constitutional, framework. To this end several NGOs organised a road show in 2006 to debate issues surrounding freedom of religion. Not only were these events mobbed by angry crowds, but also the state intervened and shut down these and future discussions on the topic of religion, deeming such debates sensitive. This article addresses the particularities of secularism in Malaysia vis-à-vis Olivier Roy's thesis in ‘Secularism Confronts Islam’ that sees religious space and secular space as discernable yet not antithetical and Charles Taylor's thesis in the ‘Secular Age’, where he points to a new definition of secularism as a pluralist and transcendent notion of belief. In Malaysia both variants are present, with the state playing a dangerous game situating itself between reactionary Muslim forces and a moderate majority.     

Comparison of Maximum Likelihood with Conditional Pairwise Likelihood Estimation of Person Parameters in the Rasch Model

This paper is concerned with person parameter estimation in the binary Rasch model. The loss of efficiency of a pseudo, quasi, or composite likelihood approach investigated. By means of a Monte Carlo study, two quasi likelihood estimators are compared to two well-established maximum likelihood approaches, one of which being a weighted likelihood procedure. The results show that the observed values of the root mean squared error are practically equivalent for the compared estimators in the case of a sufficiently large number of items.     

Improved nearest neighbor classifiers by weighting and selection of predictors

Nearest neighborhood classification is a flexible classification method that works under weak assumptions. The basic concept is to use the weighted or un-weighted sums over class indicators of observations in the neighborhood of the target value. Two modifications that improve the performance are considered here. Firstly, instead of using weights that are solely determined by the distances we estimate the weights by use of a logit model. By using a selection procedure like lasso or boosting the relevant nearest neighbors are automatically selected. Based on the concept of estimation and selection, in the second step, we extend the predictor space. We include nearest neighborhood counts, but also the original predictors themselves and nearest neighborhood counts that use distances in sub dimensions of the predictor space. The resulting classifiers combine the strength of nearest neighbor methods with parametric approaches and by use of sub dimensions are able to select the relevant features. Simulations and real data sets demonstrate that the method yields better misclassification rates than currently available nearest neighborhood methods and is a strong and flexible competitor in classification problems.     

Global sourcing in integrated network structures: The case of hybrid purchasing organizations

An issue for companies in globally competitive markets is to adapt their organizational structures and governance in increasingly complex organizations. At the functional level of purchasing, companies are turning to hybrid purchasing organizations in order to leverage global sourcing benefits. One of the key challenges in this context is to distinguish between categories to be integrated across sites and those that are to remain under the authority of each purchasing location in order to maximize purchasing synergies.This paper presents a purchasing portfolio model that provides a comprehensive view of relevant global synergy dimensions. Based on a literature review, a theoretically-grounded purchasing portfolio model for global sourcing is developed. The theoretical basis stems from information processing theory, organizational buying behavior (OBB) and transaction cost economics. The validity of the model is explored by means of case study research. Complementing the extant literature, the theoretical contribution of the paper lies in not only addressing category selection criteria for exploiting economies of scale, but also for economies of information and learning and economies of process. Furthermore, it provides insights regarding integrated network coordination mechanisms at the functional level of purchasing.     

A MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ENERGY SUBSIDIES IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY

We construct a dynamic model of a small open economy to analyze the effects of large energy subsidies. The model includes domestic energy production and consumption, trade in energy at world market prices, as well as private and public sector production. The model is calibrated to Egypt and used to study reforms such as reductions in energy subsidies with corresponding reductions in various tax instruments or increases in infrastructure investment. We calculate the new steady states, transition paths to the new steady state, and the size of the associated welfare losses or gains. Our main results for a 15% cut in energy subsidies are: (1) Steady state gross domestic product drops in most of our experiments as less energy is used in production. (2) Steady state consumption rises in most of our experiments. (3) Welfare can rise by as much as 0.6% in consumption equivalent terms. (4) The largest gains in terms of output and of welfare can be obtained when savings from energy subsidy cuts are used to fund additional infrastructure investment. (JEL E21, E63, H55, J26, J45)